Private House Building Eyes a 2027 Rebound
Glenigan forecasts that private house building starts at an underlying level, covering projects worth up to £100 million, will rise by 13% in 2027 after a difficult 2026, followed by a more modest 5% increase in 2028.
Economics director Allan Wilén expects a gradual recovery supported by lower borrowing costs, rising real incomes and improving consumer confidence, with supply easing as regulatory bottlenecks clear and planning reforms release more sites. He cautions that the pace will depend on scheme viability, as developers continue to prefer lower-risk, higher-margin projects.
That preference has built a large pipeline: more than 8,000 private housing schemes worth up to £100 million have detailed planning and are expected to start within 12 months. The South East has the biggest approved pipeline, with 1,319 projects ranging from Jones Homes Southern's 40-house Oakwood at Folders Grove in Burgess Hill to Bellway's 73-home Clover Fields in Horsham. London, where house prices have moderated significantly, comes next, with schemes from Donnington Properties' 20-flat redevelopment of Linkenholt Mansions in Hounslow to London Square Development's 347-unit Grand South in Vauxhall.
Despite restrictions from some councils, houses in multiple occupation still generate smaller-scale work, with 175 HMO projects with detailed planning due to start, such as a £970,000 scheme in Croydon and a £1.4 million project in Oxford.
With the Building Safety Regulator reducing its approvals backlog and interest rates low, larger schemes are moving forward and boosting contractors' order books. Graham leads Glenigan's top ten residential contractors with £317m of work, including a £110m, 505-flat project in Manchester for Lattimer, followed by Mears (£312.2m) and McLaren (£246.3m). Keady is building 588 flats and 34 townhouses in Knightsbridge for Amstone, and Tide is delivering the £117m Portal Way scheme in London for Aldau.
Glenigan concludes that while 2026 may be tough, conditions for the private housing sector should start to improve from next year.
